Sarah Palin's Political Future

What's next for Gov. Sarah Palin? Three possible future runs:

2010: Challenging incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) in the Republican senatorial primary

There has been much speculation that Palin will do this to prepare for a presidential run in 2012, but it seems unlikely to me. Firstly, polling on a potential Murkowski-Palin matchup has been wildly contradictory: a Research 2000 poll showed Palin leading Murkowski 55-31, while a Dittman Research poll shows Murkowski up 58-31. If Palin is serious about running, she will have to determine what her chances are. A defeat could be crushing for Palin's political future, and it seems unlikely she would risk it unless she was certain she would win.

Even if Palin wins, it is doubtful that this would have a dramatic effect on her political future. While small-state senators generally get more attention than small-state governors – the reverse is true in large states – Palin is already on the national stage. While a few voters might be reassured by the foreign and national policy experience she would gain in the Senate, it won't be enough to dramatically increase her chances. And she would further alienate the party establishment by knocking off an incumbent, although she's probably burned her bridges to the point that it will not make much of a difference.

2012: Running for President

This run would have two components: the primary and the general election. What are her chances in each? Her chances in the primary may well depend on the mood of the Republicans and the field of candidates, but I would say that the odds of her winning are less than 50%. She would not have the party establishment behind her, due to her actions as McCain's running mate and the fact that she is probably the least electable prominent Republican, but the rank and file are far more open to her. Still, polls have not shown her running away with it; rather, she seems to be virtually tied with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

The general election will be far more difficult, and probably the only way she would have a chance at winning is under circumstances that would make almost any other Republican virtually certain to win, such as the complete failure of an Obama administration. Otherwise, it will be hard for her to convince the American public that she is both competent and not a right-wing extremist.

2014: Challenging Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK)

This may well be Palin's best option, but it is far from certain that she would succeed. Her once sky-high popularity in her home state was severely damaged by her time as governor, particularly among independents and Democrats. If she runs for President in 2012, this might further damage her chances in 2014, but Alaska is an idiosyncratic state, and a run might enhance her status as a sort of favorite daughter.

More encouraging for Palin is the fact that she remains quite popular and that Alaska is still a rather Republican state. But all indications are that Begich will be a moderate Democrat, and he will side with Republicans on key Alaska issues, such as ANWR, that make it impossible for Democratic presidential candidates to win the state. If Begich has a successful first term, he may well be able to hold off Palin.